Restocker activity appears to be coming off the boil in the north, helping to push young cattle prices down to their lowest point in six months despite national supply continuing to tighten.
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The red-hot feeder market also appears to have reached a peak, with lot feeders now buying stock at a discount to restockers of more than 100 cents a kilogram carcase weight.
Northern Territory cattle are beginning to trickle across the Queensland border earlier than usual, given the below-average wet season in some parts. That has helped keep yarding sizes up in the sunshine state, although many Territory cattle do not meet EYCI criteria.
Nationally, there has been a week-on-week drop of 6000 head in EYCI cattle yarded and Wagga Wagga in NSW has become the largest contributor to the EYCI, at close to 19pc.
In the south, demand from those looking to fill up paddocks is still very strong, according to agents.
EYCI cattle at Dubbo saleyards this week traded at a 92c/kg carcase weight premium to Dalby and 57c premium to Roma, Meat & Livestock Australia analyst Steve Bignell said.
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Feeders
Lot feeders are now taking close to 60 per cent of the EYCI offering and have the luxury of being far more choosy.
The Argus northern cattle feeder price has fallen to $5.43/kg from $5.54/kg liveweight.
Livestock and commodities broker Tim Jude, StoneX, said in the saleyard the quality lines of feeders were continuing to hold onto the money but as feedlots filled up, buyers were becoming pickier in what they were willing to pay for.
At the same time, there was somewhat of a bottleneck in terms of feeder cattle coming onto the Queensland market, which big rain had contributed to, creating a slight oversupply, Nutrien Roma branch manager Andrew Holt said.
That was certainly putting a bit of pressure on feeder prices, he said.
Still, feeder prices remain at extremely strong levels and while it was hard to make a case for them rising, it was equally difficult to see values falling too far in the current environment, Mecardo analyst Angus Brown said.
"With feed grain prices rising, margins have been squeezed but lotfeeders are still able to pay $500 less than the finished price," he said.
Processors
Slaughter, meanwhile, has lifted to 98,667 head, the largest so far for the year, which could well be just a pre-Easter glitch rather than a genuine start to the predicted kill increase for 2022.
Mr Jude said on top of an already disrupted month of short kill weeks for processors in April with several holidays coming up, the recent flooding had only added to disruptions.
"Some processors have said it hasn't affected them as much as they would have thought, with feedlots that aren't flood-affected able to transport cattle to processors to fill in spare kill slots," he said.
However, at least one major processor was still in the process of fixing equipment that was damaged in floods a month ago and others were still feeling the wrath of COVID-19 infections, Mr Jude said.
Territory cattle
Mr Holt said it was early to see the first rounds of Territory cattle coming into Queensland, and most were going to backgrounders.
Increased numbers would hit the market from May, during traditional weaning season in the north, he said.
However, demand was expected to hold up and it would be unlikely the market would fall away significantly.
"Keep in mind a lot of southern Queensland graziers have been able to plant oats on the recent rain and it will only be eight to ten weeks before they'll be chasing cattle for those crops," Mr Holt said.
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