As big numbers of northern cattle continue to be drafted out of the Indonesian live export market on account of any sort of skin flaw, concerns are starting to mount about the potential impact on the domestic market.
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The question was fired at market analyst Matt Dalgleish at this month's Cattle Australia forum in Albury, southern NSW.
"At the moment, we are not seeing a rush of northern cattle headed into the grinding space but it's a definite risk if there is not a solution reasonably soon," he said.
"Sending them south is a last resort for northern live-ex producers because obviously they don't get as much for them.
"There has so far been the opportunity for them to go back on property and be held, thanks to the season."
However, if the situation extends too long, or gets worse in terms of the numbers exporters are turning away - or if the worst happens and lumpy skin disease does make its way into Australia's herd - there would be serious concerns about the domestic market, Mr Dalgleish said.
"The hope is we are progressing well in demonstrating we haven't got LSD and we might see some easing up on the animals being turned away for just minor flaws," he said.
Following Indonesia's agreement to lift its suspension on seven northern Australian quarantine yards, implemented after cases of LSD on cattle exported from those facilities, Australian authorities and exporters have taken the strictest approach possible to rejecting any beast with a skin mark.
Producers report even dry insect bites, roughed up patches of hair and any area of raised skin has warranted rejection.
Exporters say no risk can be taken that the blemishes are seen as early signs of LSD once the cattle reach Indonesia.
Government agriculture and trade experts say they are working around the clock to bring the trade back to a normal state of affairs.
Acting deputy secretary for agricultural trade Nicola Hinder told a recent senate estimates hearing in Canberra that an Indonesia trade delegation had recently visited Australia.
She said the types of blemishes that would reasonably be expected to be seen on Australian cattle were showcased.
"We will follow up with the very clear statement Australia is LSD-free and that there are a range of skin conditions that occur naturally that are not diseased animals," she said.
On a per-consignment basis since August 2023, departmental veterinary officers have rejected on average 1.9 head of cattle per consignment, over and above the 40 per cent exporter veterinary officers are advising be left on property.