![Urea prices globally are generally down this year. Photo by Gregor Heard. Urea prices globally are generally down this year. Photo by Gregor Heard.](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/5Q2j7ezUfQBfUJsaqK3gfB/2e68f67b-7819-481d-99cc-6c91237fb5eb.JPG/r0_0_6000_4000_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
There is promising news for Australian growers in terms of nitrogen and phosphorus pricing globally according to a leading analyst.
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Deepika Thapliyal, deputy managing editor at ICIS (the Independent Commodity Intelligence Service) said there were softer trends with cautious buyers across the globe, with volatile energy markets and changing sustainability requirements both big issues.
Ms Thapliyal said government policies on fertiliser's role in meeting sustainability targets continued to evolve which was making it tough to predict future trends.
This year she said the key macro nutrients, such as urea, nitrates, phosphates and potash prices are lower compared to a year ago although critical components such as ammonia and sulphuric acid levels are higher, and sulphur is largely flat.
There is finally a little breathing room in terms of supplies of critical raw products such as gas, with Ms Thapliyal saying gas prices concerns in Europe have eased on better supplies.
This year she nominated global grain prices and adverse weather, both of which are stymying demand.
Over recent weeks urea prices ex-Egypt, an important market indicator, have gone up by $US24 a tonne but Ms Thapliyal attributed this primarily to traders covering short positions in eastern Europe, Turkey and Ethiopia.
The price prior to the surge was also its lowest in a year in Egypt.
Locally for Australian growers the news is not so bright, with another unplanned shutdown in Malaysia indicating availability is still tight in the region, with China yet to focus on exports as domestic prices continue to increase and are at a premium to global levels.
Of the key urea markets Egypt has seen the biggest cut as prices trade 50pc below mid-May 2023.
The US is down around 20pc, Arab Gulf and southeast Asia lower by 12pc, Iran and the Baltic are down 5-6pc while levels in Brazil are flat year on year.
On the phosphate front it is a similar story, with prices drifting down before picking up in recent weeks.
In the second week of May, prices for diammonium phosphate (DAP) in India seemed to hold for the first time since customs inspections for Chinese product resumed earlier in the year.
Ms Thapliyal said one possible reason could be the somewhat reduced supply of product into India.
In April, a majority of imports came from Saudi Arabia, followed by Jordan and Russia. Notably, no product arrived from China or Morocco.
This tighter supply of product could partially explain the higher prices in India this week.
It is worth pointing out that price indications out of China have been slightly higher compared to previously.
Indian stocks are estimated at 1 million tonnes lower compared to this time last year.